← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Feb 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Irrati
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 45% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.32 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 26% | 28% | 3.98 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 44% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Andreas Cornelius · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 9' | 🟨 | Gastón Brugman · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 19' | 🟨 | Andreas Cornelius · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Marvin Zeegelaar · Udinese Calcio |
| 29' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Valentin Mihăilă · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 36' | 🟨 | Juan Musso · Udinese Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 64' | ⚽ | Stefano Okaka · Udinese Calcio |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| 79' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 80' | ⚽ | Bram Nuytinck · Udinese Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Dennis Man · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 51.00 | 478.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1466.69 | 1570.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.39 | 28.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.40 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| league points | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 5.66 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 28.12 |
| state index | -1.38 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |