← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 65% | 70% | 1.49 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.99 | fair |
| Spezia win | 15% | 11% | 6.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −1.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| AS Roma −1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 44% | 2.68 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · AS Roma |
| 21' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · Spezia |
| 24' | ⚽ | Roberto Piccoli · Spezia |
| 52' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · AS Roma |
| 55' | ⚽ | Rick Karsdorp · AS Roma |
| 59' | ⚽ | Diego Farias · Spezia |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bruno Peres · AS Roma |
| 87' | 🟨 | Borja Mayoral · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 602.00 | 572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1753.13 | 1519.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.95 | 8.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 6.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.57 | — |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |