← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 54% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.73 | value: +4% |
| Crotone win | 20% | 22% | 4.78 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Crotone −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hellas Verona FC −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |