← Serie A 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 6, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 75% | 80% | 1.29 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.36 | fair |
| Spezia win | 9% | 6% | 11.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli −1.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Spezia −1.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 38% | 2.69 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · SSC Napoli |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ardian Ismajli · Spezia |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tommaso Pobega · Spezia |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Spezia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ardian Ismajli · Spezia |
| 77' | 🟥 | Ardian Ismajli · Spezia |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tommaso Pobega · Spezia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 88' | 🟨 | Claudio Terzi · Spezia |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
| 🟨 |
| Konstantinos Manolas · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 402.00 | 555.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1760.43 | 1488.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.88 | -41.01 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| league points | 28.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 3.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.14 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.39 | — |
| state index | 0.73 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |