← Serie A 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 36% | 41% | 2.76 | value: +12% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 34% | 28% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Takehiro Tomiyasu · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 20' | 🟨 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 34' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Mattias Svanberg · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mattias Svanberg · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 47' | 🟥 | Mattias Svanberg · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kevin Lasagna · Udinese Calcio |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 86' |
| 🟨 |
| Angelo Da Costa · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tolgay Arslan · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 736.00 | 432.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1644.73 | 1637.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.02 | -17.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 2.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 27.82 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |