← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Jan 3, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 82% | 82% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 15% | 8.11 | value: +19% |
| Crotone win | 6% | 4% | 17.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano −2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Crotone −2 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 61% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 39% | 3.16 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Reca · Crotone |
| 12' | ⚽ | Niccolò Zanellato · Crotone |
| 19' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 22' | 🟨 | Vladimir Golemić · Crotone |
| 31' | ⚽ (og) | Luca Marrone · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Vladimir Golemić · Crotone |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sebastiano Luperto · Crotone |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 64' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 78' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 87' | ⚽ | Achraf Hakimi · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 613.00 | 764.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.19 | 1.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1870.33 | 1506.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.16 | 12.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 33.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 10.75 | 11.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.78 | — |
| state index | 1.44 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |