β Serie A 2020-21 Β· Wed, Dec 23, 07:45 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Massa
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Spezia win | 45% | 40% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.41 | value: +4% |
| Genoa CFC win | 26% | 30% | 3.67 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Spezia β0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Genoa CFC β0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |