← Serie A 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 22, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 71% | 79% | 1.35 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.60 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 11% | 7% | 9.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −1.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Juventus FC −1.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.43 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 18' | 🟥 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 37' | 🟨 | Franck Ribéry · ACF Fiorentina |
| 47' | 🟨 | Borja Valero · ACF Fiorentina |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Alex Sandro · ACF Fiorentina |
| 81' | ⚽ | Martín Cáceres · ACF Fiorentina |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Venuti · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | 🟨 | Danilo · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 143.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1919.40 | 1662.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.98 | -17.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.23 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.00 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.84 | 26.32 |
| state index | 1.39 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |