← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 41% | 46% | 2.45 | value: +13% |
| AS Roma win | 32% | 28% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Atalanta BC −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 35' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Atalanta BC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Atalanta BC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Antonio Mirante · AS Roma |
| 59' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 70' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · Atalanta BC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days | 1663.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1778.50 | 1769.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.90 | -4.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.78 |
| league points | 18.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 3.98 | 2.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 26.75 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |