← Serie A 2020-21 · Wed, Dec 16, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Giacomelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 40% | 48% | 2.48 | value: +20% |
| Spezia win | 33% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Spezia +0 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Riccardo Marchizza · Spezia |
| 19' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 25' | 🟨 | Takehiro Tomiyasu · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 37' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 49' | 🟨 | Lucien Agoumé · Spezia |
| 63' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 72' | ⚽ | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Erlić · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Provedel · Spezia |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| ⚽ |
| Musa Barrow · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 534.00 | 715.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1547.31 | 1636.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.48 | -4.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 4.24 | 3.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 26.80 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |