← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AC Milan win | 73% | 74% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.55 | value: +7% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 10% | 6% | 10.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AC Milan −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −1.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 62% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 38% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |