← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Dec 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Calvarese
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 53% | 48% | 1.81 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 24% | 31% | 4.23 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| AS Roma +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 62% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 38% | 3.00 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ (og) | Andrea Poli · AS Roma |
| 10' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 15' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Bryan Cristante · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 44' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · AS Roma |
| 49' | 🟨 | Roger Ibañez · AS Roma |
| 52' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Emanuel Vignato · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 78' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 🟨 |
| Andri Fannar Baldursson · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 712.00 | 561.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1563.42 | 1752.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.52 | -29.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 48.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.51 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |