← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 54% | 56% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 20% | 19% | 4.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SS Lazio −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 63% | 1.80 | value: +14% |
| Under | 46% | 37% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Manuel Lazzari · Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · SS Lazio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 67' | ⚽ | Adrien Tameze · Hellas Verona FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Pepe Reina · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Eddie Salcedo · Hellas Verona FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Adam Marušić · SS Lazio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Giangiacomo Magnani · Hellas Verona FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · SS Lazio |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Ebrima Colley · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1716.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 4.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1782.35 | 1642.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.19 | 32.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.60 | 44.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| league points | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 6.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.90 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |