← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 29, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 56% | 51% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.82 | value: +8% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 18% | 21% | 5.36 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SS Lazio −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 35% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 65% | 1.97 | value: +29% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Tolgay Arslan · Udinese Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Tolgay Arslan · Udinese Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ignacio Pussetto · Udinese Calcio |
| 71' | ⚽ | Fernando Forestieri · Udinese Calcio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Juan Musso · Udinese Calcio |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1703.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1800.02 | 1630.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.93 | 10.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| league points | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.90 | 6.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 30.72 | 28.12 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |