← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 75% | 75% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.50 | value: +13% |
| Torino FC win | 10% | 8% | 10.13 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −1.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Internazionale Milano −1.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 66% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 34% | 3.09 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Simone Verdi · Torino FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Danilo D'Ambrosio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 45' | ⚽ | Simone Zaza · Torino FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bastoni · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ashley Young · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristian Ansaldi · Torino FC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 67' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 70' | 🟨 | Wilfried Singo · Torino FC |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Romelu Lukaku · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 571.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.17 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1832.31 | 1535.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.36 | -4.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -1.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.46 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 25.10 |
| state index | 0.93 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |