← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Nov 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 40% | 32% | 2.46 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 32% | 43% | 3.00 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Andreas Pereira · SS Lazio |
| 19' | ⚽ | Bremer · Torino FC |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · SS Lazio |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · SS Lazio |
| 87' | ⚽ | Saša Lukić · Torino FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolas N'Koulou · Torino FC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| 🟨 |
| Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 92.00 | 1675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1621.06 | 1783.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.51 | -20.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | -0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 8.80 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 29.21 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |