← Serie A 2020-21 · Mon, Oct 26, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Giacomelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 44% | 46% | 2.26 | value: +5% |
| AS Roma win | 31% | 22% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.80 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| AC Milan −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 53% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 47% | 2.60 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 14' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 47' | ⚽ | Alexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan |
| 70' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 75' | 🟨 | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 77' | 🟨 | Pedro · AS Roma |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 81' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 82' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| ⚽ |
| Marash Kumbulla · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 391.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1823.37 | 1755.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.42 | 18.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| league points | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 4.03 | 4.12 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.69 | 25.82 |
| state index | 1.76 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |