← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 70% | 78% | 1.37 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.74 | fair |
| Benevento win | 12% | 5% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Benevento −1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| AS Roma −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 67% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Benevento |
| 31' | ⚽ | Pedro · AS Roma |
| 32' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Benevento |
| 33' | 🟨 | Roger Ibañez · AS Roma |
| 35' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 55' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · Benevento |
| 65' | 🟨 | Davide Santon · AS Roma |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 77' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 82' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Daam Foulon · Benevento |
| 89' | ⚽ | Carles Pérez · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 505.00 | 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 0.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1740.21 | 1617.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.06 | 0.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.24 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.84 | — |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |