← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 18, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 49% | 54% | 2.02 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 24% | 20% | 4.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 28' | ⚽ | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Tolgay Arslan · Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Simone Iacoponi · Udinese Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Gastón Brugman · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Yann Karamoh · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Simone Iacoponi · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ignacio Pussetto · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · Udinese Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 352.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1533.66 | 1551.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.29 | -11.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 14.89 | 14.13 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.30 | — |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |