← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Pezzuto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 64% | 66% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.94 | fair |
| Crotone win | 16% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −1 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Crotone −1 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 66% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 34% | 2.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 24' | 🟨 | Vlad Chiricheş · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Simy · Crotone |
| 57' | 🟨 | Simy · Crotone |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Francesco Caputo · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lisandro Magallán · Crotone |
| 65' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Crotone |
| 74' | 🟨 | Georgios Kyriakopoulos · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 85' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Manuel Locatelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 825.00 | 672.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1626.92 | 1527.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.69 | -27.52 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 5.88 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | 1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 22.43 | — |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |