β Serie A 2020-21 Β· Wed, Sep 30, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Prontera
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 53% | 64% | 1.84 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Spezia win | 20% | 14% | 5.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Spezia β0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Udinese Calcio β0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 53% | 44% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 56% | 2.09 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand