← Serie A 2020-21 · Mon, Sep 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 65% | 60% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +4% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 14% | 18% | 6.97 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AC Milan −1.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 50% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 50% | 2.50 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 35' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 40' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · AC Milan |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 74' | 🟨 | Takehiro Tomiyasu · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · AC Milan |
| 88' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 88' | 🟥 | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matteo Gabbia · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 356.00 | 629.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.67 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1860.56 | 1646.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.21 | -21.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.32 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.74 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 4.03 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.38 | 26.90 |
| state index | 1.70 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |