← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Sep 20, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ayroldi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 39% | 46% | 2.53 | value: +16% |
| Crotone win | 32% | 28% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crotone −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Genoa CFC −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.12 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Genoa CFC |
| 9' | ⚽ | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Rivière · Crotone |
| 29' | 🟨 | Salvatore Molina · Crotone |
| 32' | 🟨 | Antonio Mazzotta · Crotone |
| 34' | ⚽ | Davide Zappacosta · Genoa CFC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Davide Zappacosta · Genoa CFC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Miha Zajc · Genoa CFC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Paolo Ghiglione · Genoa CFC |
| 75' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| ⚽ |
| Marko Pjaca · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 50.00 | 659.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1606.40 | 1574.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.61 | -2.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 29.45 | 27.18 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |