← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Aug 2, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 57% | 59% | 1.76 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.40 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 21% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.75 | 51% | 1.99 |
| Hellas Verona FC −0.75 | 49% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 54% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 46% | 2.63 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |