← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 1, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 46% | 33% | 2.10 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 29% | 41% | 3.36 | value: +39% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 57% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 43% | 3.00 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Fabián Ruiz · SSC Napoli |
| 15' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 22' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 70' | 🟨 | — · SSC Napoli |
| 70' | 🟨 | — · SS Lazio |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eljif Elmas · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days |
| 244.00 |
| 1583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1721.22 | 1732.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.80 | 13.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.84 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| league points | 59.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.92 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 26.10 | 26.27 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |