← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 49% | 46% | 1.98 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 32% | 3.92 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| ACF Fiorentina −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 47% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 53% | 2.70 | value: +42% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |