← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 26, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 76% | 81% | 1.28 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.12 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 8% | 6% | 13.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Sampdoria −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 62% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 38% | 2.69 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Tonelli · Sampdoria |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jakub Jankto · Sampdoria |
| 67' | ⚽ | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 77' | 🟥 | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 80' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 421.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1863.34 | 1576.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.35 | 25.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 80.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 22.98 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |