← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 65% | 57% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.87 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 15% | 23% | 6.50 | value: +46% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −1 | 55% | 1.76 |
| ACF Fiorentina −1 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 55% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 45% | 2.83 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 54' | ⚽ | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 72' | 🟨 | Martín Cáceres · ACF Fiorentina |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rachid Ghezzal · ACF Fiorentina |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 88' | 🟨 | — · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 421.00 | 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1714.53 | 1603.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.42 | 28.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.25 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 50.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 61.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.91 | 3.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 25.77 |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |