← Serie A 2019-20 · Tue, Jul 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 55% | 46% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 22% | 30% | 4.40 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.75 | 51% | 1.94 |
| AC Milan +0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 55% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 45% | 2.87 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 22' | 🟨 | Mehdi Bourabia · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 37' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Francesco Caputo · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mehdi Bourabia · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | 🟥 | Mehdi Bourabia · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ismaël Bennacer · AC Milan |
| 76' | 🟨 | Diego Laxalt · AC Milan |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 85' | 🟨 | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 751.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 4.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1634.94 | 1740.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.32 | 62.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 1.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 45.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 48.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.18 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 22.43 | 24.62 |
| state index | 0.47 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |