← Serie A 2019-20 · Tue, Jul 21, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 72% | 76% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.85 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 11% | 12% | 9.00 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −1.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 66% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Takehiro Tomiyasu · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 36' | 🟨 | — · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 36' | 🟨 | — · Atalanta BC |
| 36' | 🟨 | — · Atalanta BC |
| 36' | 🟥 | — · Atalanta BC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Danilo · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Robin Gosens · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ebrima Colley · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1511.00 | 567.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1914.33 | 1659.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.75 | 1.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| league points | 71.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 2.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.94 | 26.65 |
| state index | 1.43 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |