← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 19, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 49% | 48% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 25% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| US Lecce −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Genoa CFC −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 50% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 50% | 2.34 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |