← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Valeri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Juventus FC win | 57% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +3% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 19% | 20% | 5.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Juventus FC +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 54% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 46% | 2.59 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |