← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 58% | 64% | 1.66 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.23 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 19% | 15% | 5.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hellas Verona FC −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 54% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 46% | 2.71 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Hellas Verona FC |
| 10' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 45' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 47' | ⚽ | Matteo Pessina · Hellas Verona FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matteo Pessina · Hellas Verona FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 78' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Valentin Eysseric · Hellas Verona FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Villar · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 410.00 | 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1701.04 | 1546.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.16 | 3.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| league points | 54.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 4.09 | 3.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.99 | — |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |