← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Jul 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 44% | 54% | 2.24 | value: +22% |
| AC Milan win | 29% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| AC Milan −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 45% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 20' | ⚽ | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 30' | 🟨 | Mário Rui · SSC Napoli |
| 34' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 60' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 77' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · AC Milan |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan |
| 88' | 🟥 | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 224.00 |
| 285.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 4.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1737.12 | 1723.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.96 | 70.25 |
| eye test v1 | 1.94 | 1.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 51.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 4.09 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.90 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 24.64 |
| state index | 1.02 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |