← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Jul 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Giacomelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 46% | 48% | 2.08 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 27% | 33% | 3.60 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Atalanta BC −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 406.00 | 1501.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.35 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1981.56 | 1914.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.04 | 30.73 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | 1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 75.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 2.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 29.15 | 28.02 |
| state index | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |