← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 8, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Torino FC win | 60% | 60% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.09 | fair |
| Brescia win | 17% | 15% | 6.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Brescia −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Torino FC −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.09 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 24 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |