← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 8, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Roma win | 58% | 65% | 1.66 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 19% | 11% | 5.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 −1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| AS Roma −1 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 56% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 44% | 2.78 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand