← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 8, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 41% | 39% | 2.32 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 32% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 52% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 48% | 2.79 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Gary Medel · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Lukáš Haraslín · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lukáš Haraslín · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Stefano Denswil · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 82' | 🟥 | — · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mehdi Bourabia · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mert Müldür · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Musa Barrow · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.64 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 🟨 |
| Rogério · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 554.00 | 738.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1675.31 | 1693.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.48 | 22.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 47.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 41.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 4.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.79 | 26.73 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |