← Serie A 2019-20 · Tue, Jul 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 41% | 39% | 2.35 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 31% | 37% | 3.15 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Juventus FC +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 2.04 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · AC Milan |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ismaël Bennacer · AC Milan |
| 47' | ⚽ | Adrien Rabiot · Juventus FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ante Rebić · AC Milan |
| 62' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 66' | ⚽ | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 67' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 73' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · AC Milan |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| ⚽ |
| Ante Rebić · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 280.00 | 402.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.55 | 4.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1702.31 | 1904.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.84 | 24.64 |
| eye test v1 | 1.54 | 1.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 46.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 23.75 | 26.88 |
| state index | 1.08 | 1.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |