← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Jul 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 62% | 80% | 1.60 | value: +29% ⚠ |
| Draw | 21% | 10% | 4.75 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 18% | 10% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| US Lecce −1 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 61% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 39% | 3.26 | value: +26% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 22' | 🟨 | Khouma Babacar · US Lecce |
| 27' | ⚽ | Fabio Lucioni · US Lecce |
| 32' | 🟨 | Francesco Caputo · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jacopo Petriccione · US Lecce |
| 50' | 🟨 | Filip Đuričić · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marlon · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nehuén Paz · US Lecce |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco Mancosu · US Lecce |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | US Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jérémie Boga · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mert Müldür · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Panagiotis Tachtsidis · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 734.00 | 1037.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1596.62 | 1490.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.27 | -44.85 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 37.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 2.91 | 2.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 22.81 | — |
| state index | 0.39 | -1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |