← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Jul 4, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 74% | 76% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.50 | fair |
| Torino FC win | 9% | 9% | 11.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Juventus FC −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 66% | 1.75 | value: +15% |
| Under | 45% | 34% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matthijs de Ligt · Juventus FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Armando Izzo · Torino FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ola Aina · Torino FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 87' | ⚽ (og) | Koffi Djidji |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 399.00 |
| 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.70 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1901.47 | 1563.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.63 | -19.68 |
| eye test v1 | 1.40 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.57 |
| league points | 72.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 3.81 | 3.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.60 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 26.13 |
| state index | 1.90 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |