← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 66% | 63% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.46 | fair |
| Spal win | 12% | 16% | 8.11 | value: +33% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spal +1.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| AC Milan +1.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Mattia Valoti · Spal |
| 30' | ⚽ | Sergio Floccari · Spal |
| 43' | 🟥 | Marco D'Alessandro · Spal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mirko Valdifiori · Spal |
| 58' | 🟨 | Karlo Letica · Spal |
| 79' | 🟨 | — · Spal |
| 79' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 84' | 🟨 | — · Spal |
| 84' | 🟥 | — · Spal |
| 85' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · Spal |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Francesco Vicari · AC Milan |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 25 |
| 3 | On target | 12 |
| 3 | Corners | 17 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spal | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Paolo Mazza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2039.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1540.08 | 1769.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.11 | 18.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 25.10 |
| state index | -0.49 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |