← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Jul 1, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 54% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.85 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 21% | 24% | 4.82 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.5 | 55% | 1.79 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio −0.5 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 61% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Rogério · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Grégoire Defrel · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 35' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 43' | 🟨 | Hamed Junior Traorè · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 50' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · ACF Fiorentina |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mert Müldür · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Gaetano Castrovilli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rachid Ghezzal · ACF Fiorentina |
| 84' | 🟨 | — · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| ⚽ |
| Patrick Cutrone · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 213.00 | 731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 3.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1580.83 | 1578.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.24 | -4.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 52.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 22.81 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |