← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 27, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 54% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.77 | value: +8% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 20% | 17% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| SS Lazio −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Dalbert · ACF Fiorentina |
| 7' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 24' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 25' | ⚽ | Franck Ribéry · ACF Fiorentina |
| 32' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bastos · SS Lazio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jony · SS Lazio |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 83' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Dušan Vlahović · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1548.00 |
| 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1763.24 | 1584.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.14 | 10.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| league points | 62.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 25.25 |
| state index | 1.06 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |