← Serie A 2019-20 · Mon, Jun 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 71% | 63% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 5.25 | value: +29% |
| Brescia win | 10% | 13% | 10.96 | value: +40% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brescia −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| ACF Fiorentina −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Martín Cáceres · ACF Fiorentina |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Alfredo Donnarumma · Brescia |
| 22' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · ACF Fiorentina |
| 29' | ⚽ | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 32' | 🟨 | Dalbert · ACF Fiorentina |
| 61' | 🟨 | Andrea Papetti · Brescia |
| 70' | 🟨 | Martín Cáceres · ACF Fiorentina |
| 70' | 🟥 | Martín Cáceres · ACF Fiorentina |
| 73' | 🟥 | — · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Alessandro Semprini · Brescia |
| 82' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 21 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 🟨 |
| Nikolas Špalek · Brescia |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ernesto Torregrossa · Brescia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 204.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1682.35 | 1514.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.09 | -18.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| league points | 30.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 32.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | -1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 23.76 | — |
| state index | 0.37 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |