← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Valeri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 37% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 33% | 35% | 2.99 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Hellas Verona FC +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Emil Audero · Hellas Verona FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ronaldo Vieira · Sampdoria |
| 47' | 🟨 | Samuel Di Carmine · Hellas Verona FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Tonelli · Sampdoria |
| 76' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Badu · Hellas Verona FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jakub Jankto · Sampdoria |
| 85' | 🟨 | Paweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona FC |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 23 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 159.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1538.87 | 1554.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.64 | 44.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.77 |
| league points | 23.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 21.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 22.98 | — |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |