← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 71% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.87 | value: +10% |
| US Lecce win | 12% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC +1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| US Lecce +1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 55% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 45% | 3.56 | value: +58% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Giulio Donati · Atalanta BC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Riccardo Saponara · US Lecce |
| 39' | ⚽ | Giulio Donati · US Lecce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hans Hateboer · Atalanta BC |
| 47' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 57' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Fabio Lucioni · US Lecce |
| 70' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Via del Mare |
| 🟨 |
| Riccardo Saponara · US Lecce |
| 87' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 912.00 | 1369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1527.37 | 1777.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.40 | 7.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 25.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 14.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.67 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |