← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Feb 23, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Giacomelli
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Roma win | 78% | 74% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 19% | 7.20 | value: +37% |
| US Lecce win | 8% | 7% | 12.98 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AS Roma −1.75 | 55% | 1.76 |
| US Lecce −1.75 | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 58% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 42% | 3.51 | value: +47% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand