← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 55% | 59% | 1.76 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 19% | 17% | 5.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Adama Soumaoro · Genoa CFC |
| 34' | 🟥 | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Peter Ankersen · Genoa CFC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Antonio Sanabria · Genoa CFC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Genoa CFC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Stefano Sturaro · Genoa CFC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Stefano Denswil · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Genoa CFC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Genoa CFC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 89' |
| 🟨 |
| Stefano Denswil · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 89' | 🟥 | Stefano Denswil · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 410.00 | 76.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.05 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1687.92 | 1581.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.09 | 7.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 33.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.89 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.98 | 28.50 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |