← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 42% | 45% | 2.32 | value: +4% |
| Spal win | 31% | 29% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spal −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| US Lecce −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 48% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 52% | 2.38 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Zan Majer · US Lecce |
| 20' | 🟨 | Federico Di Francesco · Spal |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kevin Bonifazi · Spal |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco Mancosu · US Lecce |
| 43' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · US Lecce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marco Calderoni · US Lecce |
| 47' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · Spal |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mirko Valdifiori · Spal |
| 62' | 🟨 | Gianluca Lapadula · US Lecce |
| 66' | ⚽ | Zan Majer · US Lecce |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Spal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Via del Mare |
| 🟨 |
| Evgen Shakhov · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 897.00 | 1902.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1595.62 | 1547.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.74 | -15.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.24 | 27.25 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |